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10/26/2011 - Martinsville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date: Saturday, October 29. Race: Kroger 200. Site: Martinsville Speedway. Track: 0.526-mile oval. Start time: 2:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 105.2. 2010 winner: Ron Hornaday Jr. Television: Speed. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.
The battle for the Camping World Truck Series championship is turning out to be one of the best in the series'17-year history. With three races to go, 16 points separate leader Austin Dillon from fourth-place Ron Hornaday Jr.
James Buescher's finish of third compared to a seventh-place run for Dillon in last Saturday's race at Talladega allowed Buescher to move within three points of Dillon.
Johnny Sauter fell 14 points out of the lead after finishing 15th at Talladega.
Hornaday has been the hottest driver in the series lately, winning three of the last six races. He finished second at Talladega.
After finishing 24th in the August 24 race at Bristol, it looked as though Hornaday's chances of winning a record-extending fifth series title were over, as he trailed the leader by 68 points. But what a remarkable comeback he's made since then.
"This championship battle is really heating up, and with three races to go, it's important to drive smart and make good decisions," he said. "I've been in this hot seat before, and I really think this team can come together and pull off a victory."
Hornaday could very well continue his surge in the point standings this weekend at Martinsville Speedway, a track where he has finished no worse than fourth in the past three years. He won at this track for the first time one year ago.
Dillon's best finish in three races at Martinsville is seventh, which came in April.
Buescher has finished no better than 11th in four starts at this track. He finished 35th here earlier this season.
When the series competed at Martinsville in the spring, Sauter passed Kyle Busch with less than two laps remaining to win here for the first time. Sauter's victory came days before his wife, Cortney, gave birth to their second child. He also became the first non-Sprint Cup Series regular to win a NASCAR national touring race during the 2011 season.
"We don't have a choice but to win if we're going to pull off this championship," Sauter said. "We're going to do whatever it takes to win, within reason. I don't look out for anybody but us, especially now with just three to go."
Timothy Peters, who grew up 30 miles away from this track in Providence, NC, is currently fifth in points (-42). Peters' first truck win came at Martinsville in October 2009. His series debut came here as well, in April 2005.
Kevin Harvick and Virginia-native Denny Hamlin are those Sprint Cup regulars competing in this race.
Harvick is the only driver entered that has multiple truck victories at Martinsville. He won back-to-back spring races here from 2009-10. Harvick will drive the No.2 Chevrolet, while Hornaday will move back into the No.33 truck. Hornaday drove the No.2 at Kentucky, Las Vegas and Talladega.
Hamlin will be behind the wheel of Kyle Busch Motorsports' No.18 Toyota.
Forty-one teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Kroger 200.
<< In the FCS Huddle: Oh, yes, Super Saturday has 57 other FCS games
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This just in ...
There are big games in the FCS this week besides the Super Saturday showdowns
of No. 1 Georgia Southern at No. 5 Appalachian State in the Southern
Conference and No. 2 Northern Iowa at No.
<< Senators send top pick Zibanejad back to Sweden
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ottawa Senators general manager Bryan Murray
announced Wednesday that 2011 first-round pick Mika Zibanejad is being
returned to Djurgarden, his team in the Swedish Elite League.
The sixth player ta
<< Del Potro lands in Vienna quarters
Vienna, Austria (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former U.S. Open champion Juan Martin
del Potro was an easy second-round winner Wednesday at Vienna's $790,000 Erste
Bank Open.
The second-seeded Argentine del Potro handled 2008 Vienna titlist P
<< This Week in Auto Racing October 29 - 30
Martinsville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Round seven in the Chase for the Sprint
Cup championship takes place this weekend on NASCAR's shortest track --
Martinsville Speedway. The Camping World Truck Series is also at Martinsville.
Formula
Texas Southern sets 2012 schedule at new stadium >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Southern football will begin play in the
new TSU/Dynamo Stadium in 2012 with at least six home games, the SWAC
university announced Wednesday.
The 22,000-seat stadium is scheduled to open in May. The Tige
Azarenka, Li post wins at WTA Championships >>
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fourth-seeded Victoria Azarenka and
French Open champion Li Na recorded round-robin wins Wednesday at the
prestigious season-ending $4.55 million WTA Championships.
Azarenka (1-0) made her first acti
Chargers put LB English on IR >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Chargers placed linebacker
Larry English on injured reserve Wednesday.
The 2009 first-round pick suffered a left foot injury Sunday against the New
York Jets. He recorded seven tackles an
MLB postpones Game 6 of World Series >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball has decided to postpone
Game 6 of the World Series between the Cardinals and Rangers because of
inclement weather in St. Louis.
With a forecast calling for rain, the game has be
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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